[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280325
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-280530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...EXTREME SERN
AR...EXTREME NWRN AL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

VALID 280325Z - 280530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY S AND E OF WW BEFORE
DIMINISHING.  PER COORD W/WFO MEG...VALID PORTIONS WW MAY BE
EXTENDED IN TIME  WITH POSSIBLE ADDITION OF SOME MS COUNTIES NOT IN
INITIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW OVER NWRN TN...WITH
COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN AR AND NWRN LA.  COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION AND ACT AS EFFECTIVE WRN BOUND FOR
CONVECTIVE/SVR POTENTIAL.  WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM LOW SEWD TO
EXTREME NWRN AL...DIFFUSED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW AIR FROM PRIOR AND
ONGOING CONVECTION.  FRONT THEN EXTENDED ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND
E-CENTRAL AL...DRIFTING NWD.  SHARP DECREASE IN BUOYANCY AND
INCREASE IN CINH WAS NOTED NE OF WARM FRONT...AS MANIFEST BY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STG/NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY IN OBSERVED 00Z BNA RAOB.
THIS WILL SHARPLY DECREASE WIND/TORNADO THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT
HAS CROSSED WARM FRONT INTO MID TN.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GRADUAL INCREASE IN MLCINH
OVER MOST OF AREA ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING...SLOWLY
OFFSETTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK THETAE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SWLY LLJ.  MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF WARM SECTOR...AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND 200-400 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH.
AS SUCH...RELATIVELY DISCRETE /PERSISTENT CONVECTION STILL CAN
ASSUME SUPERCELL CHARACTER...WITH RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS...MRGL SVR
HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33339178 34199086 35608932 36088790 35258732 34758761
            34238810 33568906 33289096 33339178



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