[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190652
TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-190815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NERN
AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190652Z - 190815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-END WIND/BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
PRESENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REVEAL SOME
INTENSIFICATION/SHARPENING OF A LONG-LIVED/FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNWARD
LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRM OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
REVEALING LIMITED/RELATIVELY SHALLOW INSTABILITY.  THESE
THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HAVING SAID THAT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH
VEERING/RAPIDLY INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
1.5 KM AND 70 KT AT 3 KM PER AREA VAD WIND PROFILES.  THIS DEGREE OF
SHEAR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS NON-ZERO -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CUSP ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE LINE.  THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33418522 33028623 33308718 34118684 36058644 37138634
            37338516 37338415 36228378 34018462 33418522



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