[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190157
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-190300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN KY...SWRN INDIANA...SERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190157Z - 190300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST MAY EXIST THIS
EVENING. A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

DISCUSSION...SMALL...LOW-TOPPED...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS
OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD HAVE RECENTLY
BECOME APPARENT IN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...BNA 00Z
RAOB DATA -- MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS -- SUGGESTS LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MLCAPE
PRESENT...DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS AFFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF NEARLY NO LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HAIL...OF
ANY SIZE...WILL BE UNLIKELY...AS CONVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW. WHILE A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF LINE-EMBEDDED WEAK/BROAD
MESOVORTICES -- PERHAPS ENHANCED BY GRAVITY WAVES -- THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...AT BEST.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36568882 37438852 38328784 38278705 37418693 35798743
            35568809 35668883 36568882



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