[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181748
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-181915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NE LA...SE MO...SRN IL...SW
IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...NW MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 181748Z - 181915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN AR INTO WRN TN...NW MS AND NE LA. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER/LESS
INTENSE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES INDICATES
THAT SOME STORM INTENSIFICATION MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE EWD ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY
LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AR INTO PARTS OF SE LA
AND NW MS WHERE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES F WERE NOTED ON 17Z
SFC ANALYSIS. THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS, BACKED
SFC WINDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SFC WARMING UNDER
BROKEN CLOUDINESS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MEMPHIS AREA AND WEST OF I-55 IN MS/SE
AR...AND NORTH OF I-20. 17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM
OF WW125. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AS SEEN IN 12Z AND 18Z RAOBS IN
ADDITION TO WSR-88D VWP PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...INTENSIFICATION IS LESS
CERTAIN. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY VEERED
SFC WINDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...
SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   38548914 38528652 35958840 33598980 32479084 32219248
            32379369 33559324 36659109 38548914



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