[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171430
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY INTO CENTRAL TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171430Z - 171630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MCD AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A QUASI-STATIONARY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD LIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F BY MIDDAY
IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF WARMING ANTICIPATED WITH CURRENTLY
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
2000-2500 J/KG. STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID
DOWN BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KY BEFORE DEVELOPING
WESTWARD IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK
ACROSS THE AREA /20-30 KT/...BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HIGH PW
VALUES COULD ALSO PRESENT STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THE MCD AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK UPDATE.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38218731 37958560 37068472 36198457 35298491 35068537
            35018684 35138788 35628834 36748860 37598839 38218731


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