[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022213
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-022315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN GA...SERN TN...EXTREME SWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022213Z - 022315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN AL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EWD AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE MCD AREA AROUND 23Z.
INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY AT THAT POINT IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW
DOWNSTREAM OF TOR WATCHES 608 AND 609.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE LINE OF TSTMS
ACROSS NRN AL IS GROWING UPSCALE AND POSSIBILITY ORGANIZATION INTO A
LINEAR MCS. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S/...MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/...AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-3 KM SRH AROUND 100 TO 150 M2 PER S2/. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE PRIMARY THREAT
APPEARS TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 09/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35008553 35308526 35638501 35798479 35828443 35718411
            35478395 35208400 34768409 34478422 33948466 33288522
            32888645 32968727 33468731 33768702 34248587 34398556
            34718558 35008553



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