[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052129
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-052330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...SWRN TN...FAR NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052129Z - 052330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NRN CROSS AND SRN POINSETT
COUNTIES IN ERN AR APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AS
IT HAS CROSSED THE QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOWLY MOVING FRONT LYING NE OF
A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL AR. AS THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR A SFC LOW NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SFC-BASED WARM SECTOR...A THREAT
FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST. VWP DATA NEAR LITTLE ROCK DEPICT 33 KT OF
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AMIDST 500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A LAYER OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SVR WINDS/HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THE STRONGEST SFC-BASED STORMS...WHILE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE DURATION OF SFC-BASED
CONVECTION...AS THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MAY UNDERCUT
ONGOING CONVECTION. IF IT APPEARS MORE WIDESPREAD SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WOULD EVOLVE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34179178 34029289 33959373 33999400 34159405 34419375
            34719311 35099250 35579132 35799080 35898975 35628926
            34898957 34449071 34179178



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