[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032216
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR / FAR NRN MS / SWRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032216Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLD STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z.  PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH
THE SERN-MOST BOUNDARY SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM ERN AR NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN.  AN
INSTABILITY PLUME EXTENDS FROM CNTRL AR NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY NARROW WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  AS
SUCH...40 KTS AT 6 KM AGL PER KOHX VWP AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL WLY/S
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION.  FLOW
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND ORIENTATION OF ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CELLULAR LINE
SEGMENTS.  THIS MAY FAVOR THE RISK FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY-AIDED
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING ACTS TO WEAKEN THE STORMS.
GIVEN THE MARGINAL CHARACTER AND SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
THREAT...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

..SMITH/CARBIN.. 11/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34839139 35858821 36428655 35958613 35268730 34648971
            34469141 34839139


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