[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312230
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-010030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...329...

VALID 312230Z - 010030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
328...329...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WATCH STATUS UPDATE: SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER KY WITH
WIND AND HAIL LIKELY. LESS OF A THREAT EXISTS OVER TN AND AL...BUT
ISOLATED...MARGINAL SEVERE IS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...FROM
THE OH RIVER SWWD INTO ERN AR. A LEADING BAND OF STORMS IS ALSO
MAINTAINING INTENSITY FROM SWRN TN INTO ERN MS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KY...WITH A
MESOLOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE RELATIVELY STRONG CLUSTER
OF CELLS APPROACHING LOUISVILLE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FLOW
AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF A DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN KY. OTHER CELLS MAY FILL IN ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN KY AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES.

TO THE S...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU
FROM THE AL BORDER NWD...SUGGESTIVE OF A MORE PRISTINE AIR MASS AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS FARTHER S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. ISOLATED CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LEADING LINE...SUGGESTING THIS LINE MAY HAVE
A FEW HOURS OF A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. OUTFLOW MERGERS FROM THIS
LINE AND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE OVER MIDDLE TN...WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38358615 38848422 38818367 38578315 38138326 37018462
            35518587 34618691 34338797 34368856 34958850 35608865
            36328899 37778653 38028625 38358615


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