[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022308
MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR AND PARTS OF SWRN-WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022308Z - 030045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/NWWD INTO ERN AR...WHILE
ADDITIONAL STORMS TRACK NWWD FROM NRN MS INTO SWRN TN EARLY THIS
EVENING.  IN ADDITION TO SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ACROSS ERN AR AND WRN TN...ISOLATED HAIL /GENERALLY AROUND 1
INCH IN DIAMETER/...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A W/NWWD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW-NNE OVER FAR ERN AR TO CROSS
COUNTY AR AND THEN EWD THROUGH FAR SWRN TN.  THE AIR MASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TO THE W-N REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWING STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS WWD THROUGH ERN A AND NWWD INTO WRN TN.  VERY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY
ENHANCE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.  WHILE THE WEAK SHEAR WILL
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...PROMOTING PULSE STORMS...THE AVAILABILITY
FOR FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ENHANCING UPDRAFTS WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY
01Z RESULTING IN A SHORT TERM THREAT...ALSO PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR
A WW.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34459182 35149161 35919108 36069019 35998934 35688876
            34998864 34698880 34858965 34899006 34969039 34379087
            33549131 33559167 33689186 34459182



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