[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue May 1 11:44:39 CDT 2012

ACUS11 KWNS 011644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011643
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-011845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011643Z - 011845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND/HAIL SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA
AND NORTHERN/WESTERN NC. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL/REMNANT CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN VA/FAR SOUTHERN WV AS OF 1615Z. IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS PERSISTENT CLUSTER/ASSOCIATED WEAK MCV MAY
INFLUENCE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE THE CU FIELD OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND/MATURE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF VA/NC PER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THE OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
RNK/GSO AND LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS COINCIDENT WITH AMPLE
INSOLATION/HEATING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY ERODE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THE REGION DOES RESIDE ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT PER 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS
AND MORE CONTEMPORARY SATELLITE/WSR-88D DERIVED DATA.
THUS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
SUSTAINED/VIGOROUS MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36828106 37768052 38087930 37827757 37017729 36657772
            36357878 36158000 35418188 35718259 35948242 36318186
            36828106

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