[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010433
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-010530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND PART OF NWRN AL/NERN MS AND PART
OF SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

VALID 010433Z - 010530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
CONTINUES.

LOCAL WFO AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 123 IS POSSIBLE WWD ACROSS NRN MS AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE NRN MS/AL
MCS.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH REAL-TIME
OBSERVATIONS.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS/ SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NERN MS/ADJACENT SWRN TN COUNTIES AND INTO PART OF
NWRN-WEST CENTRAL AL PORTION OF WW 123.  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IN THESE AREAS...BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE NWRN
EXTENT OF THE ATTENDANT MCS IN NERN MS AND ADJACENT PART OF SWRN
TN...WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING SEWD...GIVEN 10-15 KT PROPAGATION
VECTORS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEAR 1
INCH SUGGEST RATES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

AT 0415Z...THE STRONGEST STORMS PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY WERE
LOCATED OVER FAR NERN MS INTO HARDEMAN COUNTY TN...WITH A SECOND
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE BORDER OF MARION/LAMAR COUNTIES IN NWRN AL.
WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWED A 20 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO
NERN MS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL WAA INTO THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED
WITH A FEED OF HIGHER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/
LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE W/NWRN EXTENT OF THE NRN
MS/AL MCS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT FAVORS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE SUSTAINED ACTIVITY.

FARTHER S INTO CENTRAL AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS REGION HAVING BEEN
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED.  THUS...MUCH OF THE ERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF WW 123 HAS A SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34968830 34188781 33518738 32908698 32658660 31998639
            32028694 32348756 32728807 33058830 33678882 34448925
            34948943 35288931 35248884 34968830



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