[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010027
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-010130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MIDDLE TN/NERN MS/NRN AND CENTRAL AL/NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...122...

VALID 010027Z - 010130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
121...122...CONTINUES.

A LOCAL WFO SWD EXTENSION OF WW 122 IN AREA AND TIME OR A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS THE CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AL PROGRESSES SWD THIS EVENING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

AT 00Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MOVING SWD PREDOMINATELY THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WITH A
COUPLE OF STORMS AFFECTING FAR NERN MS...SRN MIDDLE TN...AND OVER
NWRN GA.  THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
JUST BEGINNING TO SLOWLY STABILIZE...THOUGH REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J PER KG/ TO MAINTAIN THE SWD MOVING
CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUPPORTS MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PER 00Z FFC SOUNDING /8 C/KM
AT 700-500 MB/ FAVOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL...SOME VERY
LARGE...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL...AND MOST RECENTLY IN CULLMAN COUNTY AL AT 2354Z WITH 2.50 INCH
HAIL.

15Z SREF AND 19Z/20Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR SUPPORT THE SWD EXTENSION
OF WW 122 AS EACH MODEL SUGGESTS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES INTO MORE
OF CENTRAL AL BEFORE WEAKENING.

..PETERS.. 04/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33058509 32188530 32088669 32318733 32388835 32688838
            34218834 34958848 35388806 35288761 35118736 35148714
            35548666 35248581 34978569 34978415 34538405 33898441
            33058509



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