[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312002
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-312100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...

VALID 312002Z - 312100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
CONTINUES.

MULTICELL CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS WILL ENTER NRN MS AND NWRN
GA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPR 70S...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOW-MID 60S IN NRN MS TO MID
50S-NEAR 60 IN NWRN GA...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMES
WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE FROM 20-30
KT/...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. FARTHER W
OVER WRN TN AND NRN MS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
/TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S/ AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR AS A RESULT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE FROM 20-30 KT WILL
FAVOR A FEW SVR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 03/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36218965 36308470 34578469 34488965 36218965



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