[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231446
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-231645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231446Z - 231645Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER MAY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE
BY 1645Z IS 60 PERCENT.

A FEW TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR INVOF SERN
MO/FAR SRN IL BORDER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE
OVER NRN AR /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING MLCAPE
TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL
LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME BACKING BETWEEN 850-700 MB...STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SPEED SHEAR /AS SAMPLED BY THE PAH VWP/ SHOULD SUPPORT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8
DEG C/KM PER 12Z SGF/LZK RAOBS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT INITIALLY.

..GRAMS.. 03/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36939003 37668992 38538929 38888862 39238806 39318742
            39148686 38768658 37948686 37248742 36518924 36408988
            36438999 36939003



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