[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Fri Mar 2 17:41:48 CST 2012

ACUS11 KWNS 022341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022341
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-030145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN-CNTRL-NERN AL / W-CNTRL AND NWRN GA /
FAR SERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...61...63...

VALID 022341Z - 030145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
59...61...63...CONTINUES.

TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND
WRN-NWRN GA.  ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO POSE AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RISK.

23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UNIMPEDED WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS AL AND MOVING INTO WRN PARTS OF GA --AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER
NWRN MS.  3 HR CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOW A DECREASE OF
2-7 DEG F AND A 2 DEG F INCREASE...RESPECTIVELY.  THE FORECAST
CONTINUED TREND IN LOWERING SURFACE SPREADS AND LESS SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SEEMINGLY PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.  SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ACCOMPANY A STRENGTHENING IN THE LLJ
/40-55 KTS/ FROM SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO NRN GA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL TORNADO
EPISODE FROM CNTRL AND E-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO N-CNTRL GA.  THIS
SCENARIO IS AT LEAST SUPPORTED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BY THE LATEST
STORM-SCALE MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/.  AS SUCH...SCATTERED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE AN ATTENDANT ISOLD TORNADO THREAT --WITH
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

..SMITH.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON   32598809 34718606 35228482 34928377 34058355 33468366
            31108573 31158740 31898840 32598809

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