[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022125
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-022230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...

VALID 022125Z - 022230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 59 CONTINUES.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL/MS OVER THE PAST 1-2
HRS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING /ASSOCIATED
WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA...AND GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-MS RIVER VALLEY UPPER IMPULSE/ IS NOW ENTERING
WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE/WIND
SHIFT NOW ENTERING WRN TN. ONE SUCH SUPERCELL FORMING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA NEAR/AFTER 22Z /PER CURRENT MOTION EXTRAPOLATION VIA OHX RADAR
LOOP/. VWP DATA FROM HTX/OHX INDICATES LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 25-40 KTS/ REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ ACROSS THE WW
AREA...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE EWD MOVING
DRYLINE...AS VEERING WINDS AND A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO
A REDUCTION IN TSTM/SVR POTENTIAL. LOCAL OFFICES MAY CONSIDER
CLEARING THE WW FROM W-E AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E.

..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33058739 33079083 36648820 36578466 33058739


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