[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021805
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 57...

VALID 021805Z - 021930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 57 CONTINUES.

LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL WWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ISSUED AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...GENERALLY NEAR A DEVELOPING DRY LINE AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVERTAKING THE
DRY LINE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CELLS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING FRONT...INITIATING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE
STRUCTURE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 20-21Z.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR...WITH LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND
MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND POTENTIALLY VERY DESTRUCTIVE.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /50-60+ KT/...AND THE CONTINUING
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF THE UNSTABLE  WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND LONG-LIVED.

..KERR.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON   37878887 38568777 39778560 38988407 37758450 36158607
            35158758 35128922 35448973 36598911 37878887


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