[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021628
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...FAR WRN TN...FAR NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021628Z - 021730Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NERN AR
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

16Z SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM 30 SE
UNO TO 20 E HOT...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING NWRN AR...WITH
A LINE OF TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE EWD MOVING DRYLINE. GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER IMPULSE /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN KS/NERN
OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO THE N...ALONG
WITH AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SUPPORT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS/. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT
AS A MIDLEVEL JET IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN AR/SRN MO...FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING STORMS. TSTM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AS THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED N OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ALL SVR
MODES...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS INCREASE.

..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35728861 34638979 34829203 35539186 36379113 36529082
            36548951 36478896 35728861



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