[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020830
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-021000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TN...NE GA...NW SC...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020830Z - 021000Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A WARM
FRONT ORIENTED FROM WNW TO ESE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL SC. THE
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. THE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 MB WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
TENDENCY OF THE STORMS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ELEVATED IN NATURE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 TO
55 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/M SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MINIMAL.

..BROYLES.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35568470 35258507 34738489 34448419 34228352 34158245
            33948124 34258082 34858085 35248187 35598392 35568470


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