[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302339
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-010215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...ERN MD...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...VA...SRN
WV...ERN KY...NERN TN...NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302339Z - 010215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A
CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL POSE A SPORADIC
SVR THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH A HAIL THREAT...AND DCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER
20F WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER CU OUTSIDE OF
ONGOING CONVECTION PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ABUNDANT
TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR PER THE STERLING 18Z RAOB...AND LACK OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. WHILE OCCASIONAL STORM MERGERS
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...AIDED BY 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...LONGEVITY OF
ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TEMPERED...LARGELY OWING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR/LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION YIELDS INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE THAT A WW IS NEEDED IS LIMITED...THOUGH WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...

LAT...LON   39497601 39027521 38457503 37997516 37407544 36897612
            36417760 35988002 35968177 36238253 36888286 37838249
            38268046 38807812 39497601



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