[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 040814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040814
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040814Z - 040945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS AND
NWRN AL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THOUGH A WW IS
POSSIBLE...IT MAY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS THE STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW
EVIDENCE OF FURTHER ORGANIZATION OR THAT SEVERE GUSTS ARE REACHING
THE SURFACE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THEY DEVELOP SWD
THROUGH NERN AR AND WRN TN...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEIR
CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL INTERACTING WITH THE WSWLY LLJ. THE STORMS
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-40 KT WLY FLOW BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KM. DESPITE
BEING ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE SINCE THE STABLE LAYER IS
RATHER SHALLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY COLD. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THE CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL NEXT COUPLE HOURS
WITH A FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE WEST ALONG THE WSWLY LLJ.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35559039 35348862 34738753 34148791 34609035 35559039


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