[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271754
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-271900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...NWRN SC...FAR SERN TN...NRN GA...NERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271754Z - 271900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A GROWING TOWERING CU/CB
FIELD PRIMARILY ANCHORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG SWRN
EXTENSION OF A MID-ATLANTIC SFC TROUGH...FROM WRN NC WSWD INTO NRN
AL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE FORMING FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL GA/AL ALONG WEAKLY CONFLUENT WIND SHIFTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A HOT AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES /PER
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS/. WITH FURTHER HEATING...TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS...BUT ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY
WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARM THERMAL PROFILES...A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 07/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35778110 35048210 34438320 34128436 33908522 33778562
            33818623 34208647 34678611 35478356 35898265 36168182
            36168131 35778110



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