[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261844
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/CNTRL/ERN OK...W-CNTRL/NRN AR...FAR NWRN
TN...FAR SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261844Z - 262115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE BOUNDARY-LAYER
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND INCIPIENT CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
SERN PERIPHERY OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE LYING PARALLEL
TO...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF...A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM W-CNTRL
OK INTO W-CNTRL IL. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL AR SWWD TO THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF WRN AR.
WITH LITTLE/NO INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WARM
SECTOR PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM THE CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

ACROSS OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY A MODEST AMOUNT OF MIXED-LAYER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINING PER MODIFIED 12Z NORMAN OK RAOB.
REGARDLESS...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN MCV CROSSING N-CNTRL
OK AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY AID IN SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT MAY EMANATE FROM WEAK WAA MANIFESTED
BY ACCAS CLOUDS SHIFTING NWD/NEWD FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S IS YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. A FEW
MULTICELL CLUSTERS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS WITH SVR
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION MAY LACK ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT...AS THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN N/NE OF
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35549716 36329491 36458979 36268918 35998950 35189242
            34219634 34419766 34929773 35549716



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather