[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250632
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-250730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN VA/EXTREME NERN TN/PARTS OF WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250632Z - 250730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SMALL MCS THAT FORMED OVER EXTREME SERN KY INTO EXTREME
SWRN VA HAS PRODUCED A COLD POOL AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN SEWD
MOVEMENT /NEAR 40 KT/.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS SEWD THROUGH EXTREME SWRN VA/EXTREME NERN TN
INTO WRN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /UNTIL 08-09Z/.  GIVEN
SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMITATIONS...A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER ERN KY WITH A TENDENCY TO TRAIN
SEWD...RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY...GIVEN A
RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SMALL MCS
THAT FORMED OVER EXTREME ERN/SERN KY INTO EXTREME SWRN VA BETWEEN
04-0530Z/ HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /1-2+ IN/HR AS INDICATED
BY RADAR ESTIMATES AND NESDIS SATELLITE ESTIMATES FOR BUCHANAN
COUNTY VA/.  ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NWWD ACROSS ERN
KY...WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS BEING FED BY W/NWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
PROVIDING AN INFLUX OF RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS
KY AND MIDDLE/ERN TN.  35 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZATION AND SEWD
MOVEMENT AS OBSERVED IN THE SWRN VA TSTM CLUSTER.

THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN NC IS LESS UNSTABLE GIVEN TIME OF
DAY AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.  THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR SUGGEST THE ERN KY/SWRN VA STORMS WILL TRACK SEWD...BUT WEAKEN
AS THEY REACH AREAS OF GREATER DOWNSTREAM STABILIZATION.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37138161 35738063 35018077 35258202 35688234 36438273
            36658288 37238315 37138161



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