[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211817
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NC...NRN SC...FAR SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211817Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED /1/ NEAR/ON THE WARM SIDE OF A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER.../2/ IN
JUXTAPOSITION WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS...
/3/ NEAR A RATHER SUBTLE/GENERALLY N/S-ORIENTED SFC LEE TROUGH THAT
BISECTS SC AND EXTENDS INTO NC...AND /4/ A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG
THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH-PW PLUME OVERLAYING THE AREA -- PW MOSTLY FROM 1.6 TO 2.0
INCHES PER GPS DATA -- SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY MOVE INTO UPSTATE SC AND WRN
NC FROM NERN GA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTENSIFY.

ONLY MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL YIELD GENERALLY 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR --
HIGHEST OVER COASTAL NC/VA -- PROMOTING OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STRUCTURES. SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS -- AIDED
BY PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES -- AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP
SHEAR/STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36667628 36327577 35347550 34217701 33777833 33667952
            33858119 34538286 35438326 36308181 36787941 36667628



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