[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192317
WVZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CNTRL/ERN KY...FAR SRN WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

VALID 192317Z - 200045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS WRN HALF OF WW
495 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED FURTHER E AND THE WW MAY BE CANCELED NORTH OF
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED FROM NEAR THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA SWWD INTO AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE WW HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD TO THE TN
BORDER IN THIS AREA. WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MARGINAL MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT FROM STORMS DEVELOPING IN
STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE LOUISVILLE CWA. THE
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE LOUISVILLE AREA MAY POSE A GREATER THREAT
AS IT HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE AND ANY DEVELOPING COLD
POOL WOULD HELP MAINTAIN STORMS AND AID IN STRONG/SEVERE WIND
PRODUCTION.

BULK OF STORMS/SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA AND COUNTIES MAY BE DROPPED BY LOCAL WFO/S NORTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTION.

..LEITMAN.. 07/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...
PAH...

LAT...LON   38778686 37748074 36438074 36588702 38778686


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