[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101623
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TN/NORTHEAST AL/NORTH GA TO SC/SOUTHERN
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101623Z - 101830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN VIGOR
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TN/NORTHEAST AL/NORTH GA TO SC/PORTIONS OF NC. DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AT MIDDAY EITHER SIDE OF
A WAVY EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE THAT ROUGHLY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SUCH INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT IS ESPECIALLY
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND ADJACENT PARTS OF GA/AL WITH AID
OF MULTIPLE OUTFLOWS AND AN ALREADY WEAK CINH ENVIRONMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S F. SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR/GENERALLY DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS FAR
SOUTHEAST TN/NORTH GA INTO MUCH OF SC...MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOIST/WEAKLY INHIBITED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D
VWP DATA REFLECT ONLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KT
/0-6 KM/. HOWEVER...FACTORS SUCH AS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE BUOYANCY...AND A POCKET OF DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS GA/SC...IMPLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH PULSE-TYPE STORMS/SOME MULTICELLS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/WEISS.. 07/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35678544 36078389 35828262 35748144 35787927 35147874
            34537891 32988096 33818391 34418615 35678544


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