[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062315
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-070115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...CNTRL/NRN MS...ERN AR...NERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 474...475...

VALID 062315Z - 070115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
474...475...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE SWWD
AND MAY EVENTUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER...BUT MORE WATCHES MAY NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWWD FROM WRN
TN INTO NRN MS AND WRN AL. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK FOR SUBSTANTIAL
ORGANIZATION. NEW STORM GENERATION BEHIND THE SURGING OUTFLOWS IS
MEAGER AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTRIBUTING TO
ADDITIONAL COLD POOL PRODUCTION. AS SUCH...THE ACTUAL SEVERE THREAT
MAY ONLY BE IN NARROW CORRIDORS ASSOCIATED WITH CELLS THAT CAN
PROPAGATE AT A SPEED SIMILAR TO THE BOUNDARY MOVEMENT.

THE OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN TN NOW APPROACHING THE MEM AREA MAY BE
SURGING TOO QUICKLY TO MAINTAIN A BALANCE. THUS...THE EXISTING WATCH
BOUNDARY AT THE MS RIVER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTAIN THE SEVERE
THREAT. OTHER ACTIVITY WAS BEHAVING SIMILARLY OVER NRN MS.  A LARGER
CLUSTERING OF STORMS EXISTS OVER E CNTRL MS...AND THIS MAY BE WHERE
THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 07/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35718932 35198897 34808879 33758873 33428812 33138787
            32818789 32298820 32198940 32119011 32249081 32689133
            33609181 34479146 35579065 35818991 35718932



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