[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032223
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-040100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...CNTRL/WRN NC...NRN SC...ERN TN...FAR NERN
GA...FAR SRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032223Z - 040100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT
PIEDMONT REGION INTO EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS HAS FOSTERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SWRN VA TO NERN GA. WLY TO NLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS PER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG/MORRISTOWN/ROANOKE VWP DATA WILL
AID IN ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING ONTO THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE A NE-SW-ORIENTED LEE TROUGH EXISTS. ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT BENEATH APPROACHING ANVIL
SHADING /SUBTLE DIABATIC COOLING/ WILL LARGELY LIMIT INITIATION
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...THOUGH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE AXIS
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. MODERATE INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG -- MAY PROMOTE OCCASIONAL VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH A
VERY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THREAT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
900 J/KG WILL ALSO PROVIDE A THREAT FOR VERY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS WITH MICROBURSTS. WEAK DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE WILL KEEP
CONVECTION LARGELY DISORGANIZED...WITH ANY SVR THREAT
BRIEF/SPORADIC. AND...WITH THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF DIABATIC
COOLING/STABILIZATION...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER 00Z.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
FFC...

LAT...LON   38017778 37867735 37307723 36727743 35857796 34707915
            34298045 34038178 34048260 34338333 34818424 35308439
            35978368 36468272 36918198 37358129 37468066 37447964
            37547871 38017778



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