[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022216
TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-030045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN/SRN
KY...MIDDLE TN...NWRN GA...NERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022216Z - 030045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS
THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO JUST W OF MOUNT VERNON IL...AND
ALONG CUMULUS CONVERGENT BANDS...AMIDST A MOIST AIR MASS -- PW OF
1.45-1.65 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- HAS FOSTERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE REGION LIES TO THE W/SW OF A
RIBBON OF MODESTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR LYING NE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT INTERSECTS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR CHICAGO.
AS SUCH...CONVECTION HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO EXHIBIT
DISORGANIZED/PULSE TO OCCASIONALLY MULTICELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.

MORE NOTABLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
/1/ AREAS NE/E OF THE MOUNT VERNON IL AREA ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN
IND...WITH 10-15 KT OF SWLY/SLY FLOW BELOW 2 KM AGL PER EVANSVILLE
VWP DATA SUGGESTING COLD POOL MOTION/ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
REGENERATION TO THE NE/N OF ONGOING ACTIVITY.
/2/ NRN MIDDLE TN INTO S-CNTRL KY...WHERE A NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND
FROM 40 WNW OF BOWLING GREEN TO 70 ESE OF BOWLING GREEN WITH LIMITED
OVERALL MOTION OF THE BAND ANTICIPATED DURING THE SHORT-TERM
OFFERING 1-2-IN/HR RAINFALL RATES.
/3/ SRN MIDDLE TN INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NERN AL/NWRN GA WHERE WEAK
NLY FLOW ABOVE 3 KM AGL PER HYTOP AL RADAR DATA WILL ALLOW SWD CELL
MOTION FOR A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR CHATTANOOGA INTO PARTS OF
NWRN GA AND NERN AL.

MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT AREAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALREADY REDUCED
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF DCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL ON A SPORADIC BASIS
WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY
AFTER 00Z AS INHIBITION INCREASES OWING TO THE GROWTH OF THE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...
ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059121 37689216 38649228 39459162 40089029 40048834
            39288687 38188580 37218515 35728448 34758482 34588583
            35268712 36408876 37059121



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