[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011808
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-012045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011808Z - 012045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR SHOULD YIELD A PULSE-TYPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SPORADIC LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS AND BRIEF/MARGINAL HAIL AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORM ACROSS PARTS OF MS TO GA.

DISCUSSION...HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 AND PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE YIELDING VERY LARGE BUOYANCY WITHIN A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND VARIABLE...INDICATIVE OF A
PULSE-TYPE/DISORGANIZED ENVIRONMENT...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
CERTAINLY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS BRIEF SEVERE
HAIL. PREDOMINATELY SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION NWD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...BUT OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY EMANATE IN ALL
DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON   34798406 34018328 33288283 32998291 32458340 32228393
            31798569 31808694 32278837 33048904 33958940 34448942
            35118892 35438765 35448587 35368521 34798406


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