[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231002
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MS...AL EXCEPT NERN AND EXTREME
SRN...NWRN GA...SERN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...7...

VALID 231002Z - 231200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11...7...CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW E OF WRN-MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT
0945Z FROM MCB AREA NEWD OVER WRN AL.

MAIN TORNADO THREAT THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS SHOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH BKN BAND OF TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
HISTORY OF TORNADOES AND/OR REPORTED DAMAGE...EXTENDING FROM BHM
METRO AREA SWWD TO CLARKE/LAUDERDALE COUNTIES MS AND CHOCTAW COUNTY
AL BORDER AREA.  THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL AL...AS INDIVIDUAL TSTMS MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD THROUGH
FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR.

WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST N AND E OF BHM TO BETWEEN
AUO-ALX...THEN SWD NEAR DHN.  WARM FRONTAL ZONE...MOVING ENEWD 10-15
KT...WILL CONTAIN MOST PRONOUNCED COMBINATION OF AT LEAST MRGL
BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY WITH BACKED SFC WINDS AND ATTENDANT
SRH/HODOGRAPH ENHANCEMENT.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS AND VWP SUGGEST
400-800 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH ALONG WARM FRONT...ONLY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WWD ACROSS ERN MS AS SFC WINDS SLOWLY VEER.  MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM AROUND 250 J/KG JUST E OF WARM FRONT TO 800 J/KG NEAR
MS/AL BORDER AND WWD ACROSS MUCH OF MS.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGES FROM
60-70 KT OVER NRN AL TO 40-45 KT NEAR MOB.

W OF AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELLULAR BAND...VEERED FLOW ALSO REDUCES
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT SVR WITH MAIN WIND-DAMAGE THREAT STILL
IS POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY TO ITS W IN MS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
SERN LA.

..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30149165 31518997 33108762 34808642 35168540 34648467
            33828502 33538522 32538512 31988605 31118771 29989024
            30149165



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