[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 230652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230652
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-230845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KY...SERN
INDIANA...SWRN/S-CENTRAL OH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 230652Z - 230845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E...AS PRIMARY BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS
PASSES.  ADDITIONAL SVR WW MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN AN HOUR...DOWNSHEAR
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN INDIANA...SWRN OH AND CENTRAL/NRN KY.

PRIND SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN FORM OF CONVECTIVE
WIND...AND WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA.  WARMING CLOUD TOP TRENDS ARE NOTED ON IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER
EVEN LOWER-TOPPED CONVECTION STILL MAY POSE DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STG LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL-WEAK
INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR SFC.  E END OF SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...AS
SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING OVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY
1. STATIC STABILITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE AND
GREATER IN DEPTH WITH EWD EXTENT....YET
2. STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC ERODING GRADUALLY FROM SW IN PRESENCE OF
STG LOW-LEVEL WAA...WITH MUCAPE 200-600 J/KG ESTIMATED BASED ON FCST
SOUNDINGS.  STG WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN VWP JUST ABOVE SFC...E.G. 70-80
KT IN 1-3 KM AGL LAYER PER LVX VWP SAMPLE...WITH SVR MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO SFC POSSIBLE IN DOWNDRAFTS.

CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO EXIT ERN PORTIONS WW AROUND 730Z-08Z
BASED ON PRESENT MOTION...WHICH MAY ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS MORE
INTENSE MEAN FLOW MOVES OVER AREA AHEAD OF EJECTING MID-UPPER
TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36648723 37948638 39228632 39528633 39968484 40208381
            39848300 39308268 38638299 37898361 36608457 36648723



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