[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 290649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290649
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN-EAST CENTRAL MO...CENTRAL AND ERN AR...SRN
IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN-NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 290649Z - 290745Z

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...WITH INITIAL TORNADO WATCH TO BE
COORDINATED SOON WITH WFOS FROM ERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND AND WRN
KY.  POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE FARTHER S WILL BE MONITORED FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL/ERN AR TO WRN TN/NWRN MS.

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF THE MID
AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THESE
THREATS ARE ATTENDANT TO A FAST MOVING /ENE AT 50+ KT/ QLCS WHICH AT
0630Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MO /LACLEDE COUNTY/ INTO EAST CENTRAL OK /PITTSBURG COUNTY/.  THE
SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY MORE DISCRETE
STORMS...WHILE A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO PERSISTED ON THE NRN END
MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SRN MO.

AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM IS UNDERGOING DESTABILIZATION AS PW VALUES UP TO
1.5 INCH...NOW OVER ERN AR...SPREAD NNEWD CONTRIBUTING MUCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  60-70 KT SWLY 850-700 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS.  THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ENEWD OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..PETERS.. 02/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...
LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   33069316 34729276 36639121 38789133 39048939 38688701
            36658699 35098765 33428959 33069316



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