[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241405
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-241430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...ERN TN...AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 241405Z - 241430Z

WW WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FROM PARTS OF ERN TN/WRN NC INTO SWRN
VA.

SINCE 1230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO
CENTRAL WV...FAR ERN KY...ADJACENT FAR SWRN VA...AND SWWD THROUGH
ERN TN.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT /AROUND 50 KT/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  SOME LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE PER KGSO/KRNK
12Z SOUNDINGS AND WSR-88D VADS AT MRX/CRW FAVOR A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS.  IN ADDITION...THE ONGOING STORMS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE AT 50-60 KT...WHICH WOULD POSE A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR.  THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36318351 37388198 37658084 37737957 37307921 35868041
            34948103 34988340 35118478 36318351



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