[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 240346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240346
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN KY/NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240346Z - 240515Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL-SRN KY AND NRN TN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
ALTHOUGH WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG A LING FROM NEAR
LOUISVILLE SSWWD TO NEAR HOPKINSVILLE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A 994
MB SFC LOW. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL KY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MUCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 70 TO 80 KT/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE HAIL THREAT MARGINAL. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ISOLATED
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS
ASSUMING THE CELLS CAN BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36218708 36078586 36318520 37748408 38188421 38378493
            38348579 37918631 37608660 37248691 36908723 36528735
            36218708



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