[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222013 COR
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS...THE NRN HALF OF AL...PARTS OF SRN
TN...NWRN GA...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222013Z - 222215Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE NS TO MS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED HEADLINE

CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PAIRED WITH SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES REVEAL A CLEARLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...BENEATH
WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM/SLOWLY MOISTEN...THE EWD SPREAD OF COOLER
AIR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN -- AND THUS LOCATION OF A CONCENTRATED THREAT AREA REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...INCREASINGLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS
PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS.  THIS -- AND THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS --
SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

ATTM...CU FIELD APPEARS MOST ROBUST ACROSS NERN MS AND EWD ACROSS
NRN AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  WITH THIS AREA ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR THE SRN
BOUNDARY OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING
WAVE...THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION ZONE
FOR INITIAL CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 02/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32728894 32918977 33399003 34588919 35638555 35588375
            34828331 32988640 32688806 32728894



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