[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260200
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-260800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ARK NEWD TO NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 260200Z - 260800Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NERN
1/4 OF ARK NEWD TO NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE.  THE ONSET OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FIRST FROM PARTS OF CNTRL ARK
/GENERALLY N OF I-40/ INTO SERN MO IN THE 03-05Z PERIOD...AND
FARTHER NEWD NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE IN THE 04-08Z PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS
EVENING.  AN ATTENDANT DRY SLOT IS WRAPPING NEWD INTO NERN ARK
TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE AS THE POTENT PV ANOMALY
APPROACHES WRN TN BY LATE EVENING.

01Z SUBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE FROM
NEAR ELD NNEWD TO 30 MI SE BYX IN ARK.  AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS ARK OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INITIAL MIXED P-TYPE IN
E-CNTRL AND NERN ARK --FEATURING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET-- WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE WARM LAYER LOCATED NEAR H85 COOLS /REF.
00Z LZK RAOB 2 DEG C/.  THIS HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY AT LIT.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES /1-2 INCHES PER HR/ ARE EXPECTED TO
COINCIDE WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED AND CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT IS MOST PROBABLE.  AS AN ASIDE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER CNTRL ARK EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NE AR...SERN MO...AND NEAR PAH SHOW THE STEEPEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A REDUCTION IN STATIC STABILITY OCCURRING
IN THE 02-04Z...03-05Z...AND 04-08Z PERIODS...RESPECTIVELY.  AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO
MIDDLE TN BY 09Z...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONCURRENTLY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  FREQUENT WIND GUSTS 35-45
MPH /ALREADY OBSERVED IN NERN ARK/ WILL BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE
AREA.  THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES SUBSTANTIALLY AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..SMITH.. 12/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37038833 34819178 34629257 34799302 35259292 37618942
            37698894 37488838 37038833


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