[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132015
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-132045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/SRN IL/FAR SWRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/ERN
AR/NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 132015Z - 132045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY
SWD TO THE MID SOUTH /ERN AR INTO NWRN MS/.  TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN FAR SWRN IL AND ADJACENT SERN MO SWWD
INTO PARTS OF ERN AR THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN IL THROUGH SERN MO TO NERN-EAST CENTRAL
AR TO SWRN AR.  HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS
HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SRN IL TO 3000 J/KG OVER SERN AR.
DESPITE THE WEAKER CAPE WITH NWD EXTENT...THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER
FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE
AND SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER S...THE BULK SHEAR IS WEAKER /LESS THAN 30
KT/...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT IN PROMOTING
ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH THE AVAILABLE SHEAR RESULTING IN MULTICELL
STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTED SURFACE BASED INHIBITION HAS
ALL BUT ERODED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY IN ARKANSAS/POINSETT COUNTIES
AR.

..PETERS/CARBIN.. 08/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   38478916 38588752 38498718 35918838 33248979 33039096
            33079150 33319248 34019208 35019118 35999051 36499025
            38138958 38478916



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