[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131721
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SRN MIDDLE TN/NRN AND CENTRAL AL/PART OF
EAST CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 131721Z - 131745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND
THE AFFECTED WFO/S FROM SRN MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL AL AND EAST CENTRAL
MS.

DISCUSSION...DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTINUED NWD MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE OF TWO EWD MOVING TSTM COMPLEXES WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE CURRENTLY 1000-1500 J/KG...AND SUPPORT
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
INTENSITY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH ONGOING STORMS AFFECTING
THIS REGION...AND NEW TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN MIDDLE TN ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE NRN MCS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
25-30 KT WITH VECTORS ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
LINES WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL LINEAR MODE...THOUGH SOME VECTORS
CROSSING THE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE STORM MODE TOO.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/CARBIN.. 08/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   35018715 35438659 35438570 34218552 33038607 32268639
            31958778 32188841 32448851 32958778 33788740 34478740
            35018715



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