[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091716
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-091815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...WRN GA...ERN TN...EXTREME SWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091716Z - 091815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION OF THIS LINE IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. A
FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

DISCUSSION...TWO PRIMARY LINES OF TSTMS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA. ONE IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN AND THE
OTHER IS MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS ERN/NERN AL. ANOTHER TSTM CLUSTER IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN GA. THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
BMX...FFC...AND TLH ALL DEPICT A MOIST AND DEEP WARM LAYER WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 13 KFT AND PWATS ABOVE 1.8 INCHES. CLOUD
BREAKS AHEAD OF THESE LINES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AND LATEST RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ERN AL/WRN GA AND AROUND 1500 J/KG FARTHER N
ACROSS ERN TN. RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS APPEARS TO HAVE WARMED THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MORE THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...LEADING TO
HIGHER ANALYZED MLCAPE VALUES. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING STORM INTENSITY. LATEST VAD PROFILES FROM BMX AND
FFC DEPICT ABOUT 25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD
POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION. BRIEFLY
ENHANCED UPDRAFTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND A FEW WET MICROBURSTS BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW.  REGARDLESS...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF BETTER
STORM ORGANIZATION.

IN ADDITION TO BRIEFLY ENHANCED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE/SATURATED SOILS.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   31988547 32418635 33218664 33788647 34348614 34968583
            35878529 36548493 36598457 36518371 35998338 33588342
            33498346 32978350 32598388 32188435 32028480 31988547


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