[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041813
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-041945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND/PORTIONS OF KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041813Z - 041945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STG TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE CHARACTERIZED BY STG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG/...AND MINIMAL CINH. DISCUSSION AREA IS SOUTH OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
/PWATS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE/ AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TSTMS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WHERE MERGING OUTFLOWS CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS WITH AN ENHANCED SVR WIND THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 08/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36738801 37608771 38428757 39078701 39258625 39048577
            38458572 37808575 36598607 35498648 34988682 35138802
            36328808 36928787 36738801

WWWW
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