[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261823
KYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KY...NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261823Z - 262030Z

TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT DROPPING
SEWD ACROSS KY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AMIDST STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT BY 20Z.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN ARCING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR UNI TO 20
S LEX TO PAH. SURFACE WINDS HAVE LARGELY VEERED TO W/SWLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR...LIMITING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BUT CU APPEAR
TO BE INCREASING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND ASCENT SHOULD BE AIDED BY
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX MOVING SE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY. ABUNDANT STRATOCU HAS RESULTED IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF TN AND EXTREME SRN KY. BETWEEN THIS STRATOCU
DECK AND THE FRONTAL ZONE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY ZONE OF TSTM
INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG IS
PREVALENT. GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...THIS SETUP SHOULD
YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36698874 37088851 37398633 37798485 38558332 38578279
            38408254 38028241 37738243 36628354 35848606 35938750
            36288858 36698874



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