[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252310
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855...

VALID 252310Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 855 CONTINUES.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE THE NARROW PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY AXIS...WHERE STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRED...ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  STORMS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY
WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND INGEST MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.  SIMILAR TRENDS SEEM PROBABLE WITH
STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF AS THEY CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL
FOCUSED AREA OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...ON THE NOSE OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF MONTICELLO AR INTO THE
GREENVILLE MS AREA THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME.  SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  BUT EVEN WITH FAIRLY SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS... CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..KERR.. 09/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34019199 34819089 35339023 35458950 35048914 34089033
            33499066 32899089 32919172 33249192 34019199


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