[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181950
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN...S-CNTRL KY...FAR NERN MS...FAR
NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181950Z - 182045Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

COMPACT UPPER IMPULSE EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP IS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...WHICH HAS SUPPORTED
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ONLY EXHIBIT WEAK VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED AT 50 KTS AT 4 KM
AGL PER HTK VWP/ WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
/INCLUDING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND
REPORTS...BUT MARGINAL POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD RISK FROM MATERIALIZING.

..ROGERS.. 10/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35648764 36358694 37158570 36958511 36058493 34498529
            33658573 33178601 32928652 32788747 33098838 33718855
            34688854 35358788 35648764


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