[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222045Z

ONLY A MINIMAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN
AL...NWRN GA...AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

A SSW-NNE-ORIENTED BAND OF WAA-INDUCED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS NERN AL INTO SRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A SEWD-SURGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE WHILE
ARCING SWWD TOWARD COLUMBUS MS. DESPITE SLY/SWLY FLOW OF 25-35 KT
JUST ABOVE THE SFC PER HUNTSVILLE VWP DATA YIELDING 0-1-KM SRH
VALUES AOA 250 M2/S2...ANY CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN ROOTED
ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING FROM WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE. WHILE A BRIEF UPTICK IN CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HRS OWING TO THE INTERACTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
LEADING CONVECTION/WAA ASCENT...AND AS THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 895 WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF INSOLATION AND IMPEDED NWD BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX. STABILIZATION WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP LEADING THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INVOF THE MS RIVER...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...WHILE
ONE OR TWO LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP
AREA...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. SVR PROBABILITIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN MAY BE REDUCED IN THE UPCOMING 20Z-ISSUANCE OF
THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..COHEN.. 11/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36168570 36528525 36478442 36048412 35178452 34238511
            33788564 33758626 33888667 34248687 35188626 36168570



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