[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142332
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...IND...WRN/SRN OH...WRN/NRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 879...881...

VALID 142332Z - 150100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 879...881...CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN WW 879 AND 881 WILL BEGIN TO ENTER
PORTIONS OF NRN KY AND SRN IND/OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS.
CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A NEW WW.

MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE CONSISTING OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE AT 50 KT ACROSS SRN IL...CNTRL IND
AND NRN OH AT 2320Z. STORMS ARE FOCUSED ALONG TWO SEPARATE COLD
FRONTAL SEGMENTS...COINCIDENT WITH NARROW AXIS OF UPR 50S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG /PER OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE/. AREA VWP/S AND RUC PFC/S SHOW VERY FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
THREAT...CHARACTERIZED BY 90 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLY JET RESIDING ABOVE
40 KT LLJ...YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 60 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 300 M2 S-2. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WHICH MAY PRECLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH
COULD OTHERWISE AID IN COMPENSATING FOR THE MEAGER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT INTO PART OF
THE NIGHT...AND WOULD POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KY AND SRN IND/OH FOR
AN ADDITIONAL WW.

..GARNER.. 11/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   38898257 37208709 36269019 36389075 37569076 38188997
            38528899 40128744 41258401 39978222 38898257



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