[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261909
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261909Z - 262045Z

BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN OH TO NRN MIDDLE TN
MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 40 PERCENT.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY/LIGHTNING TRENDS HAS BEEN NOTED
DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS THAT STRETCHED
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM GREENE COUNTY OH TO MACON COUNTY TN AS OF
19Z. DOWNSTREAM HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED BY LARGELY BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE...RESULTING IN ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
AOB 1000 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/IND...A NARROW-BANDED
QLCS ALONG THE FRONT MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE E/NEWD. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
S/SWLYS...WHICH ARE ALSO NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 05/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36128487 36238610 36448605 37598532 39958419 40258369
            40408302 40318243 40148212 39908215 38698257 36518425
            36128487


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