[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222326
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WRN/CNTRL WV...ERN KY...WRN VA...WRN
NC...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324...333...

VALID 222326Z - 230130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
324...333...CONTINUES.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES PUSHING
EWD/ENEWD OUT OF WW324 AND ACROSS WW333. WW324 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 01Z.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM S-CNTRL OH INTO SRN WV...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF WRN VA...WRN NC...AND ERN
TN. THE EXPANSIVE COLD POOL DRIVEN BY THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROMOTE ITS
EWD PROGRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AUGMENTED BY MODEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW /WLY 500-MB WINDS AT 25 KT DEPICTED IN CHARLESTON WV
VWP/. MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE REGENERATION...MAINLY PRIOR TO SUNSET.
THEREAFTER...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF STRONGER ASCENT
WILL LARGELY RESULT IN A WANING SVR POTENTIAL. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF IN EXCESS OF 20F AHEAD OF THE
ACTIVITY /OWING TO PRECONVECTIVE MIXING/ WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
ORGANIZED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALSO...A FEW OF THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...ENHANCED BY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO 35
KT...COULD YIELD A SECONDARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION IS
NOT FORECAST TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING COUPLED WITH ONLY NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

..COHEN.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   39838159 39558051 38548015 36848046 35668127 35258197
            35078301 35568348 36848308 37788284 38108313 38848309
            39418278 39798222 39838159


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